ORLANDO, Fla. — A familiar summertime pattern is already upon the area: High humidity with a high probability of a surge of tourists traveling to Orlando for theme-park vacations.
Central Florida’s attractions are opening several new lures at Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando, SeaWorld Orlando and beyond. But experts are split on how travel plans may be affected by Epic Universe, a new theme park scheduled to open in summer of 2025. It will be Universal Orlando’s third theme park.
“I don’t think people are waiting to come to Florida,” said Tarah Chieffi, senior writer with The Points Guy, a travel-media platform. “Orlando is always one of the most popular summertime destinations, obviously, especially for families, and that is really no different this year.”
She pointed to Bank of America’s summer travel report, which expected the number of visitors to Florida to be about the same as in 2023, and up 15% from 2019, the summer before pandemic hit the U.S. Orlando is the No.2 searched destination on Expedia, she said.
The state had 40.6 million visitors in the first quarter of 2024, the highest mark ever for a single quarter, Visit Orlando, the state’s tourism marketing agency, reported this month.
Len Testa, who runs the Touring Plans vacation-planning site, said Epic could be a factor in travel decisions for 2024.
“It’s not the primary reason why people are putting off trips,” he said.
“For people who like theme parks and who know what’s going on in Central Florida, a lot of them are like ‘You know, I can spend X dollars this year and not see Epic Universe or I can spend X dollars and 10% or 20% more and see Epic Universe, and that’s, like, a once every decade occurrence.
“A new theme park opens up in the United States, like, once every 10 years,” he said.
The last two theme parks to join the Orlando lineup were Universal’s Islands of Adventure in 1999 and Disney’s Animal Kingdom in 1998.
“One of the more interesting comments on the last earnings call that [Walt Disney Co. CEO] Bob Iger made was that he was telling Wall Street that your comparisons for the next two quarters are going to be difficult, and he said it was because we’re coming off of the very end of the 50th [anniversary of Disney World],” Testa said.
“Bob can say whatever he wants, but you know it also happens to coincide with basically everyone deciding ‘Do I want to spend my money now or do I want to wait until that Epic Universe is open and see an entirely new theme park?’ I think a lot of people are doing that.”
Among the new and notable offerings at Central Florida’s theme parks for summer 2024 are Tiana’s Bayou Adventure, a log-flume ride at Magic Kingdom; DreamWorks Land, a kids section driven by animated-movie characters at Universal Studios; and Penguin Trek, a snowmobile-inspired roller coaster at SeaWorld, which the park touts as “Florida’s first family coaster.”
“Any coaster that’s built in our backyard is a very good thing,” said Chris Kraftchick, who is on the operating committee of American Coaster Enthusiasts, a fan club for the thrill rides.
“Any coaster that brings people to their park brings revenue to the park which then means they will continue, land permitting, to put in coasters,” he said.
Kraftchick says the summer looks busy if you go by the eye test at Orlando International Airport, where he spends hours doing volunteer work for a nonprofit.
“It is nonstop at the airport. Imagine the airport on Thanksgiving weekend or Christmas week where it’s just wall-to-wall people. Insanity. TSA lines are an hour wait,” he said. “So are people holding up this year? If you went simply by with what the airport looks like, I would say no.”
There is a “rabidness” for upcoming attractions among locals and annual passholders, too, he said. There was recent system-crashing demand for previews for Universal’s DreamWorks Land, which opens to the public June 14, and Disney’s Tiana ride, which debuts June 28.
“I don’t think you’re going to see Orlando down. … Those people who have made their plans to come are coming,” said Dennis Speigel, founder and CEO of International Theme Park Services.
Nationwide, he doesn’t see many game-changing attractions this summer.
“There are a few good pieces coming on line, and then there are some that are just mediocre,” he said.
That means attendance likely won’t rise much, Speigel said.
“I don’t see anything that would say it’s going to ratchet up to a point of being up 5% to 8%. … I see us being up 1% to 2% across the board in the industry this year and with spending being kind of holding to what it was last year,” Speigel said.
There are other factors at play this summer, such as hot weather, hurricanes, the economy and politics, he said, and even the November election.
“It’s not the issue of the win or lose. It’s what happens to the societal and the cultural issues, people are wondering about, ” he said. “Some of them have even said, you know, we’re concerned about security and things that could go on in the parks.”
Current deals on multiday theme park tickets and hotel stays could be reactions to economic uncertainty, said Chieffi, the Points Guy writer. Comparison with previous years are difficult, she said.
“It is hard to say because coming off the pandemic we obviously saw some great discounts for a while just to try to get people back,” she said. “I do think that that is a little bit of an extra push that we haven’t seen as much before.”
Summer isn’t the be-all end-all season it used to be in Orlando, now considered a year-round destination.
“Even though the tourism numbers are looking really good, August and September are still the cheapest months for most of us out-of-state visitors,” Chieffi said.
“People have more flexible schedules anyway now after the pandemic. But school schedules, I feel like it used to be a lot more September to June,” she said. “Now everybody does it a little bit differently.”
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